Stock Market Next Week Prediction: Key Factors Driving Indian Markets (13th-17th Jan 2025): The Indian stock market witnessed a heavy sell-off last week. Sensex and Nifty fell more than 2% during the week. The sharp fall was due to heavy selling pressure from FIIs, weakness in the Indian Rupee against the US dollar, the HMPV virus, and rising US bond yields.
Despite the in-line expectations of the TCS quarterly number, the domestic equity market indices closed in the red on Friday, while the broader markets underperformed the benchmarks. Market volatility is expected to continue in the coming week, too. Below are the factors likely to impact the Indian Stock Market Next Week.
Q3 Earnings:-
Last week, TCS announced its earnings which was in-line expectations with the analysts. The IT sector ended in the green on Friday, supporting the equity benchmarks in reducing some losses. In the coming week, IT stocks will be in focus as out of eight Nifty 50 stocks, four IT stocks will announce their Q3 earnings next week. The Q3 earnings list is given below.
| Q3 Earnings of Nifty50 Stocks | |
| 13 Jan 2025 | HCL Tech |
| 15 Jan 2025 | HDFC Life |
| 16 Jan 2025 | Axis Bank |
| 16 Jan 2025 | Infy |
| 16 Jan 2025 | Reliance |
| 17 Jan 2025 | SBI Life |
| 17 Jan 2025 | TechM |
| 17 Jan 2025 | Wipro |
Economic Data:-
The economic data will play a crucial role in the coming week. We may hear some good news in the December 2024 inflation data. The CPI inflation is likely to ease to 5% from 5.5% in November as vegetable prices like Potato, Onion, and Tomato prices decline. The detailed schedule of Economic data for the coming week is given below.
| Indian Economic Data | |
| 13th Jan 2025 | Inflation Rate Dec |
| 14th Jan 2025 | WPI Inflation |
| 15th Jn 2025 | Balance of Trade Dec Export & Import |
| 17th Jan 2025 | Bank Loan and Deposit Growth Jan |
| Foreign Exchange Reserve | |
FIIs & DIIs Investment:-
The Indian stock market is likely to be impacted by the ongoing conflict between foreign investors (FIIs) and domestic investors (DIIs). While FIIs have mostly been selling, DIIs have been actively buying Indian stocks.
So far in January 2025 out of 7 trading sessions, FIIs have sold shares of around 21K cr in 6 trading sessions. Meanwhile, DIIs were the buyers in all the 7 trading sessions and they bought shares worth Rs 24K cr (approx) in the Indian stock markets. Traders should closely monitor the FIIs & DIIs investment data as this will create volatility in the markets.
Global Stock Market Cues:-
The global stock market trends are the most important factor because Indian markets follow the movement of global stock markets. The Indian stock market next week on Monday is likely to start on a subdued note as the US job market data released last Friday showed strong growth in December 2024. This raised concerns that the US economy continues to run at a solid pace, stoking inflation fears and dampening expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve
In the upcoming week, inflation, industrial production, retail sales data, and US Fed official speeches will create further volatility in the global markets. The detailed schedule for the economic data and events in the global stock markets is given below.
| Economic Data & Event | ||
| Date | Global Events & Data | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index Jan |
| 13th Jan 2025 | Balance of Trade Dec, Exp & Imp | China |
| 14th Jan 2025 | Consumer Confidence Index Jan | AU |
| PPI, Core PPI Dec | US | |
| Fed Schmid Speech | US | |
| 15th Jan 2025 | Fed Williams Speech | US |
| Inflation Rate, Core Inflation Rate, PPI, Dec | GB | |
| Industrial Production Nov | EA | |
| CPI Inflation Rate, Core Inflation, | US | |
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index Jan | US | |
| Fed Barkin Speech | US | |
| Fed Kashkari Speech | US | |
| Fed Williams Speech | US | |
| Fed Golsbee Speech | US | |
| 16th Jan 2025 | Fed Beige Book | US |
| PPI Dec | Japan | |
| Unemployment Rate | AU | |
| GDP Nov, Avg 3 Months | GB | |
| Goods Trade Balance Nov | GB | |
| Industrial Production Nov | GB | |
| Balance of Trade Nov | EA | |
| Retail Sales Dec | US | |
| Export & Import Dec | US | |
| Initial Jobless Claims | US | |
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index Jan | US | |
| 17 Jan 2025 | House Price Index Dec | China |
| GDP Growth Rate Q4 | China | |
| Industrial Production Dec | China | |
| Retail Sales Dec | China | |
| Unemployment Rate Dec | China | |
| Retail Sales Dec | GB | |
| Inflation, Core Inflation Dec | EA | |
| Building Permits & Housing Starts Dec | US | |
| Industrial Production Dec | US | |
| Business Confidence Q1 | HK | |
Rupee Movement against the US Dollar:-
The Indian rupee is expected to weaken further, with Barclays’ Mitul Kotecha predicting it could reach ₹87 against the dollar by year-end. He mentioned that while the rupee has already hit ₹86, a sharp near-term depreciation is less likely.
Key factors include global developments and U.S. policies under Donald Trump, such as potential aggressive tariffs, which could impact global stock markets and the rupee. A further depreciation in the Indian rupee in the coming week will influence the FIIs to continue selling in the Indian Stock Market.
Crude Oil Prices:-
Crude Oil prices gained nearly 3% on Friday, reaching their highest level in three months. The oil was bullish as traders prepared for possible supply issues due to new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and gas. The US President Joe Biden’s administration introduced sanctions targeting Russian oil producers, transporters, traders, and ports, aiming to disrupt every step of Russia’s oil production and delivery.
Brent crude closed at $79.76 per barrel, up $2.84 (3.7%), after briefly crossing $80 for the first time since October 7. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.65 (3.6%) to $76.57 per barrel, also a three-month high.
The rising of crude oil prices could be another concern for the Indian stock markets as India is the major importer of crude oil and this could impact rising inflation. Traders should closely monitor the crude oil prices in the coming week.
Conclusion
The Indian stock market is expected to remain volatile in the coming week due to multiple factors, including Q3 earnings, economic data, global market trends, and crude oil prices. The tug-of-war between FIIs and DIIs, and the rupee’s movement against the dollar, will further influence market sentiment. Traders should keep a close eye on these key triggers and stay prepared for potential market fluctuations.
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You may also like to read, Indian Stock Market Weekly Wrap: Volatility Persists Amid Weak Economic Sentiments.
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Editor’s Desk